The government refuses to avtoutilya

• The government refuses avtoutilya

The world experience shows that such programs can not be extended for more than three years

Russian motorists may be more likely to bid farewell to the program of recycling of domestic cars in 2017, said on Friday, "Kommersant", citing sources in the industry. Official confirmation of this information yet. On Tuesday, the Industry Minister Denis Manturov said that further measures of state support the automobile industry will be offered at the end of the year and did not specify the exact date.

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Recycling program cars was launched in September 2014 and renewed in 2015. Its essence is to stimulate sales of new cars produced domestically. Car owner rents a scrap their old car and get a discount on the purchase of a new one. The size of the discount varies from 50 to 350 thousand rubles. In this case, the dealers receive from the state compensation. Citizens were able to more or less acceptable conditions to buy the model UAZ, VAZ, Skoda, Ford, Nissan, Citroen, Renault, Opel, Volkswagen, SsangYong.

Sale go to the peak of

According to the newspaper, now there are consultations on the future of the program avtoutilizatsii government. In the years 2015 -2016 it cost the budget at 45 billion rubles. Only in January - August 2016 under the program 263, 7 thousand cars were sold, and at least a third of them came off the assembly line of AvtoVAZ, unable to live without government support.

In case of cancellation of the recycling program sales market will inevitably collapse. Argue about whether you can how to be a great fall. Despite the efforts of the state, the economic crisis drags manufacturers and dealers one. According to the September AEB statistics, car sales in August of 2016 by 18% compared to the same period last year. In January-August 2016 the citizens purchased 14, 9% fewer cars. A negative trend in the past year has demonstrated the three most popular models of Kia Rio, Hyundai Solaris and Lada Granta. Increase in sales can only boast of Volkswagen Polo, Rapid Skoda, Nissan Qashqai and Toyota Camry. This year, more cars are likely to collapse the market. truck market is uzhalsya only 3%.

avtoutilizatsii program largely supports the demand for AvtoVAZ model, the Gorky Automobile Plant, Ford Sollers, Renault and Kia. AvtoVAZ say that in 2015, 40% of the cars were sold under the program. Last year, Ford Sollers has sold more than 50% of the models, Renault-more than 49%, Kia - 10%. If you cancel a program GAZ expects sales to fall by 17-20%.

on the two ends of the stick

"Kommersant" writes that the distribution system for the recycling program of subsidies was not perfect and did not satisfy the Ministry of Industry. The lack of a clear system could become one of the "annoying" factors for the government. Economy Ministry is opposed to the continuation of the recycling program. The Office considers that it has the effect of "pent-up demand" and predicted a collapse in sales. "The longer postpone the program stop, the stronger will fall", - claim in the Ministry of Economy.

World experience shows that such programs can not be extended for more than three years. The problem is that the increase in sales is due to the tug-demand at a later period. To use this resource for several years is dangerous for the future of the automotive industry. This measure is effective, when the state needs to provide short-term support car market during the crisis.

From the point of view of competition disposal long-term program is unacceptable: the manufacturer and the dealer get used to the high demand and lose the incentive to improve the business. In this case, the considerable burden placed on the budget. The average cost of the state on the one sold car is 100-150 thousand rubles per year - more than 20 billion. In the current economic conditions, the state makes sense to think at least about cutting costs.

ROGRAMME recycling - is a double edged sword. The government has had significant assistance auto business and save him from bankruptcy. Perhaps the government hoped that within two years the crisis will bottom out and the economy out of recession. However, the forecasts for 2017 look quite bleak and artificial maintenance of demand for cars of domestic production will not solve the problem.

In this case, the choice is between bad and very bad. Bad option - is the abolition of the recycling program, which, according to various sources, derail the market by 5-20%, and force the government to wrestle with the topic of how to re-save AvtoVAZ. Very bad - it is that the recycling program will bury the car market after 2017, unless, of course, the Russian economy will recover miraculously.